Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Naar een optimaal gebruik van biologische mest van kippen en geiten via compostering?

Optimaal gebruik van biologische mest is een cruciale schakel in de overgang naar een 100% biologische keten. Er zijn echter biologische mestsoorten die (nog) moeilijk toe te passen zijn. Denk aan kippenmest die niet op het kippenbedrijf zelf ingezet kan worden of verse stromest van herkauwers die niet op grasland uitgereden kan worden. Voorbehandeling van de mest kan de kwaliteit en het gebruiksgemak echter flink verhogen

Digitisation and 3D reconstruction of 30 year old microscopic sections of human embryo, foetus and orbit

A collection of 2200 microscopic sections was recently recovered at the Netherlands Ophthalmic Research Institute and the Department of Anatomy and Embryology of the Academic Medical Centre in Amsterdam. The sections were created thirty years ago and constitute the largest and most detailed study of human orbital anatomy to date. In order to preserve the collection, it was digitised. This paper documents a practical approach to the automatic reconstruction of a 3- D representation of the original objects from the digitised sections. To illustrate the results of our approach, we show a multi-planar reconstruction and a 3-D direct volume rendering of a reconstructed foetal head

Convergence of the all-time supremum of a L\'evy process in the heavy-traffic regime

In this paper we derive a technique of obtaining limit theorems for suprema of L\'evy processes from their random walk counterparts. For each $a>0$, let $\{Y^{(a)}_n:n\ge 1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables and $\{X^{(a)}_t:t\ge 0\}$ be a L\'evy processes such that $X_1^{(a)}\stackrel{d}{=} Y_1^{(a)}$, $\mathbb E X_1^{(a)}<0$ and $\mathbb E X_1^{(a)}\uparrow0$ as $a\downarrow0$. Let $S^{(a)}_n=\sum_{k=1}^n Y^{(a)}_k$. Then, under some mild assumptions, $\Delta(a)\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)}\stackrel{d}{\to} R\iff\Delta(a)\sup_{t\ge 0} X^{(a)}_t\stackrel{d}{\to} R$, for some random variable $R$ and some function $\Delta(\cdot)$. We utilize this result to present a number of limit theorems for suprema of L\'evy processes in the heavy-traffic regime

Multilevel use of image repository in the field of veterinary imaging and dissemination of training tools

[Extract] Until now the veterinary teaching environment is limited to static two dimensional materials. In order to improve the teaching experience we decided to adapt our educational PACS to build 2D and 3D viewing veterinary datasets. As entry level of education we setup a knowledge base consisting out of normal anatomy [1, 2]. The second step is the construction of an imaging atlas compared with the normal anatomy of every animal. The third step is the construction of a database containing a wide variety of radiopathology cases. The final level is the integration in an e-learning platform namely WikiVet [3] which is a collaborative initiative involving UK veterinary schools. The project is creating a comprehensive online knowledge base and will provide a reliable reference source to supersede Wikipedia for veterinary students, paramedics and graduates anywhere in the world, improving diagnostic skills using diagnostic imaging

A universal anti-Xa assay for rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban measurements: method validation, diagnostic accuracy and external validation.

A universal anti-Xa assay for the determination of rivaroxaban, apixaban and edoxaban drug concentrations would simplify laboratory procedures and facilitate widespread implementation. Following two pilot studies analysing spiked samples and material from 698 patients, we conducted a prospective multicentre cross-sectional study, including 867 patients treated with rivaroxaban, apixaban or edoxaban in clinical practice to comprehensively evaluate a simple, readily available anti-Xa assay that would accurately measure drug concentrations and correctly predict relevant levels in clinical practice. Anti-Xa activity was measured by an assay calibrated with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) in addition to ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). As an external validation, LMWH-calibrated anti-Xa activity was also determined in nine external laboratories. The LMWH-calibrated anti-Xa activity correlated strongly with rivaroxaban, apixaban or edoxaban drug levels [r &lt;sub&gt;s&lt;/sub&gt; = 0·98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·98-0·98]. The sensitivity for the clinically relevant cut-off levels of 30, 50 and 100 µg/l was 96·2% (95% CI 94·4-97·4), 96·4% (95% CI 94·4-97·7) and 96·7% (95% CI 94·3-98·1) respectively. Concordant results were obtained in the external validation study. In conclusion, a universal, LMWH-calibrated anti-Xa assay accurately measured rivaroxaban, apixaban and edoxaban concentrations and correctly predicted relevant drug concentrations in clinical practice

Development and external validation of a model to predict complex treatment after RFA for Barrett's esophagus with early neoplasia

Background & Aims: Endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is safe and leads to complete eradication in the majority of patients. However, a subgroup will experience a more complex treatment course with a risk for failure or disease progression. Early identification of these patients may improve patient counseling and treatment outcomes. We aimed to develop a prognostic model for a complex treatment course. Methods: We collected data from a nationwide registry that captures outcomes for all patients undergoing endoscopic eradication therapy for early BE neoplasia. A complex treatment course was defined as neoplastic progression, treatment failure, or the need for endoscopic resection during the radiofrequency ablation treatment phase. We developed a prognostic model using logistic regression. We externally validated our model in an independent registry. Results: A total of 1386 patients were included, of whom 78 (6%) had a complex treatment course. Our model identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer with a visible lesion containing high-grade dysplasia/cancer, and patients with less than 50% squamous conversion after radiofrequency ablation were identified as high risk for a complex treatment. This applied to 8% of the study population and included 93% of all treatment failures and 76% of all patients with advanced neoplastic progression. The model appeared robust in multiple sensitivity analyses and performed well in external validation (area under the curve, 0.84). Conclusions: We developed a prognostic model that identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer and high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma and those with poor squamous regeneration as high risk for a complex treatment course. The good performance in external validation suggests that it may be used in clinical management (Netherlands Trial Register: NL7039)

Dysplastic Recurrence After Successful Treatment for Early Barrett's Neoplasia:Development and Validation of a Prediction Model

Background & Aims: The combination of endoscopic resection and radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) with dysplasia and/or early cancer. Currently, there are no evidence-based recommendations on how to survey patients after successful treatment, and most patients undergo frequent follow-up endoscopies. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prediction model for visible dysplastic recurrence, which can be used to personalize surveillance after treatment. Methods: We collected data from the Dutch Barrett Expert Center Registry, a nationwide registry that captures outcomes from all patients with BE undergoing endoscopic treatment in the Netherlands in a centralized care setting. We used predictors related to demographics, severity of reflux, histologic status at baseline, and treatment characteristics. We built a Fine and Gray survival model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization to predict the incidence of visible dysplastic recurrence after initial successful treatment. The model was validated externally in patients with BE treated in Switzerland and Belgium. Results: A total of 1154 patients with complete BE eradication were included for model building. During a mean endoscopic follow-up of 4 years, 38 patients developed recurrent disease (1.0%/person-year). The following characteristics were independently associated with recurrence (strongest to weakest predictor): a new visible lesion during treatment phase, higher number of endoscopic resection treatments, male sex, increasing BE length, high-grade dysplasia or cancer at baseline, and younger age. External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.86–0.94) with good calibration. Conclusions: This is the first externally validated model to predict visible dysplastic recurrence after successful endoscopic eradication treatment of BE with dysplasia or early cancer. On external validation, our model has good discrimination and calibration. This model can help clinicians and patients to determine a personalized follow-up strategy

All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998

The theory of firm growth is in a rather unsatisfactory state. However, the analysis of large firm-level datasets which have become available in recent years allows us to begin building an evidence base which can, in turn, be used to underpin the development of more satisfactory theory. Here we study the 239 thousand UK private sector firms born in 1998 over their first 15 years of life. A first, and quite striking, finding is the extraordinary force of mortality. By age 15, 90% of the UK firms born in 1998 are dead, and, for those surviving to age 15, the hazard of death is still about 10% a year. The chance of death is related to the size and growth of firms in an interesting way. Whilst the hazard rate after 15 years is largely independent of size at birth, it is strongly affected by the current (age 14) size. In particular, firms with more than five employees are half as likely to die in the next year as firms with less than five employees. A second important finding is that most firms, even those which survive to age 15, do not grow very much. By age 15 more than half the 26,000 survivors still have less than five jobs. In other words, the growth paths – what we call the ‘growth trajectories’ – of most of the 26,000 survivors are pretty flat. However, of the firms that do grow, firms born smaller grow faster than those born larger. Another striking finding is that growth is heavily concentrated in the first five years. Whilst growth does continue, even up to age 15, each year after age five it involves only a relatively small proportion of firms. Finally, there are two groups of survivors which contribute importantly to job creation. Some are those born relatively large (with more than 20 jobs) although their growth rate is quite modest. More striking though, is a very small group of firms born very small with less than five jobs (about 5% of all survivors) which contribute a substantial proportion (more than one third) of the jobs added to the cohort total by age 15